Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Tennessee Titans

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Tennessee Titans · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -170 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Titans will be starting backup quarterback Mason Rudolph in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Titans are a massive 12.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Titans to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the greatest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Lions defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Titans to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Titans this year (a mere 55.5 per game on average).
The Titans offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Tony Pollard's receiving reliability have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 83.5% to 89.2%.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Lions defense has allowed a mere 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.

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