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Tony Pollard

Tony Pollard Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Tennessee Titans vs Minnesota Vikings

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies a throwing game script for the Titans, who are -6-point underdogs.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.0 per game) this year.

The model projects Tony Pollard to notch 3.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.

With a remarkable 13.9% Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Tony Pollard places among the pass-catching RBs with the most usage in the league.

Tony Pollard comes in as one of the top pass-game RBs this year, averaging an excellent 3.1 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 93rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 55.5% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the league has been the Titans.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Tennessee Titans are expected by the projection model to call only 62.6 total plays in this game: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

Tony Pollard's 79.3% Adjusted Catch% this year signifies a material reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 83.5% mark.

This year, the tough Minnesota Vikings defense has surrendered a mere 80.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of LBs has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 8th-best in the NFL.

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