Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-175/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 2nd-fastest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.06 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.
The Dallas Cowboys O-line has given their quarterback 2.53 seconds before getting pressured (9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Chicago Bears defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.3 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the league.
Tony Pollard has been a more important option in his team's offense this year, playing on 46.6% of snaps compared to just 30.2% last year.
Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.0% to 71.5%.

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