Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to use backup QB Cooper Rush in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accumulate 3.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among RBs.
Tony Pollard has been heavily involved in his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 9.4% this year, which ranks in the 75th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
Tony Pollard's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 88.9% to 63.5%.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (73.5%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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