Tony Pollard Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tony Pollard

NFL · Player Props

Tony Pollard

RB · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tony Pollard Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 140.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Tony Pollard has been used more as a potential pass-catcher this year (41.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (26.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to accrue 3.2 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends rank as the 6th-worst DE corps in football this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
Tony Pollard's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.5% to 82.2%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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