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Tony Pollard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-114/-110).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -114.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Titans are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.3 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.In this game, Tony Pollard is expected by the model to land in the 94th percentile among running backs with 4.1 targets.With an extraordinary 11.7% Target Rate (90th percentile) since the start of last season, Tony Pollard has been as one of the pass-catching running backs with the highest volume in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Titans to be the 9th-least pass-focused team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.The Titans have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 56.3 plays per game.When talking about pocket protection (and the impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Titans profiles as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.Tony Pollard ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in football when it comes to running backs, catching a measly 74.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 10th percentile.Tony Pollard grades out as one of the least efficient pass-catchers in the league when it comes to running backs, averaging just 4.61 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 8th percentile.
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