Tommy Tremble Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 11, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to utilize backup QB PJ Walker in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers rank as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to run the 2nd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 52.4 plays per game.
Tommy Tremble's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 57.1%.