Tommy Tremble Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Tommy Tremble

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Cleveland Browns · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Tommy Tremble Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 25.65 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (74.3%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (74.3%).
The Carolina Panthers have been faced with a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have risked going for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Tommy Tremble has been among the worst pass-catching TEs since the start of last season, averaging just 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 14th percentile among tight ends.
Tommy Tremble has been among the least sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, hauling in just 62.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.