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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 2

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-180/+150).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.2% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (66.3%).

The New Orleans Saints defense has given up the 2nd-least passing TDs in football: 1.11 per game since the start of last season.

The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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