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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 69.1% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used play action on just 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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