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Tom Brady

Tom Brady TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -215.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (63.5%).

The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 9th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.41 per game since the start of last season.

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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