Tom Brady TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

TD Passes

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+164/-215).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the lowest level in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys defense has given up the 9th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.41 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.

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