Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM EST

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 271.5 (+117/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 271.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 271.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 4th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 42.2 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL vs. the New Orleans Saints defense since the start of last season (66.3%).
The New Orleans Saints cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on a measly 17.2% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.