Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 271.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 272.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 271.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Tom Brady has passed for substantially fewer yards per game (282.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
Tom Brady has been among the least effective QBs in football this year, averaging just 6.55 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 16th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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