Tom Brady Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 286.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 279.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 286.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 2nd-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 137.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 44.4 passes in this game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Tom Brady's passing precision has declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.3% to 64.1%.
Tom Brady's passing effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a mere 6.53 yards-per-target compared to a 7.57 mark last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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