Tom Brady Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Arizona Cardinals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 26, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-124/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 70.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 63.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 44.4 passes this week, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have utilized play action on just 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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