Tom Brady Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tom Brady

NFL · Player Props

Tom Brady

QB · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Completions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Tom Brady Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 41.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in the NFL against the New Orleans Saints defense this year (65.3%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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