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T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-355).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -410 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -355.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

When talking about air yards, T.J. Hockenson ranks in the towering 96th percentile among TEs since the start of last season, accruing a massive 49.0 per game.

T.J. Hockenson has been in the 92nd percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a monstrous 41.2 figure since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

While T.J. Hockenson has accounted for 27.3% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a less important option in Minnesota's passing offense near the goal line in this contest at 19.0%.

T.J. Hockenson profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching just 65.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 21st percentile.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

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