T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2026

Updated Nov 13, 2026 1:27 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+104/-136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +114 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
This year, the imposing Green Bay Packers defense has allowed a paltry 71.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 10th-smallest rate in football.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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