My Account Log Out

reorder

T.J. Hockenson

T.J. Hockenson Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-185/+141).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -147 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -185.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

In this week's game, T.J. Hockenson is forecasted by the predictive model to slot into the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs with 6.2 targets.

T.J. Hockenson has been in the 92nd percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) with a monstrous 41.2 figure since the start of last season.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's collection of LBs has been lousy since the start of last season, profiling as the worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

T.J. Hockenson's play as a receiver has worsened this year, notching just 2.1 adjusted receptions compared to 4.1 last year.

T.J. Hockenson profiles as one of the worst possession receivers in football among tight ends, catching just 65.9% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 21st percentile.

More T.J. Hockenson Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™