T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 15, 2023 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-188/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -146 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a big 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 66.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 7th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 8.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced pass game effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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