T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-126/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to accumulate 6.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 5th-highest Completion% in football (82.7%) versus tight ends this year (82.7%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson's 40.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving talent has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 3.8 yards per game vs 5.0 last season.
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 59.7%.

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