T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+153/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -210.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 6.5 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson has been among the top pass-game tight ends this year, averaging a terrific 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
T.J. Hockenson's 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 59.4%.

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