T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
T.J. Hockenson has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 52.3%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a lowly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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