T.J. Hockenson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 45.6%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (65.6%).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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