T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 9, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-102/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 42.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will be rolling with backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Vikings are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
This week, T.J. Hockenson is anticipated by the predictive model to land in the 93rd percentile when it comes to tight ends with 6.9 targets.

Favors Under

The model projects the Vikings to be the least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.7% pass rate.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
This year, the strong Bills defense has allowed a mere 69.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The Bills defensive tackles project as the best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to pass rush.

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