T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-102/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 35.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may go down.
The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to notch 5.6 targets in this game, on balance, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
After accruing 20.0 air yards per game last season, T.J. Hockenson has seen marked improvement this season, currently pacing 34.0 per game.
T.J. Hockenson's 44.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 28.8.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Minnesota Vikings profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the 4th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

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