T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-116/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are predicted by the model to run 65.6 total plays in this contest: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.
The model projects T.J. Hockenson to earn 6.8 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has accrued many more air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (20.0 per game).
The Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 56.9% rate of throwing the ball (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football has been the Minnesota Vikings.
Opposing offenses teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.2 per game) this year.
While T.J. Hockenson has garnered 25.8% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Minnesota's passing attack in this contest at 20.1%.
As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, New Orleans's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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