T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

reorder

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-103/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 69.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 81.0% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 94th percentile among tight ends.
The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to total 6.0 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 91st percentile when it comes to TEs this year with an astounding 15.0% of his team's air yards accumulated.
Since the start of last season, the poor Miami Dolphins pass defense has conceded a massive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

With a 10-point advantage, the Vikings are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.7 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) since the start of last season.