T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2026

Updated Nov 13, 2026 4:08 PM EST

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-103/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 9th-least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 56.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to call the 5th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Packers defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
The Packers defense has allowed the 8th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 45.0) to tight ends this year.
This year, the imposing Packers pass defense has given up the 9th-least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing TEs: a feeble 3.7 YAC.
The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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