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T.J. Hockenson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (-120/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.T.J. Hockenson has run a route on 83.9% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends.The leading projections forecast T.J. Hockenson to earn 8.2 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.T.J. Hockenson's skills in picking up extra yardage have declined this year, compiling a mere 4.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 6.18 figure last year.The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) to TEs since the start of last season.The Carolina Panthers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.91 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-fewest in the league.
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