T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-347).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +240 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
T.J. Hockenson has been a key part of his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 20.6% this year, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among tight ends.
T.J. Hockenson has notched a colossal 48.0 air yards per game this year: 93rd percentile among TEs.
T.J. Hockenson grades out in the 94th percentile among tight ends as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.43 per game.
The Minnesota Vikings have faced a stacked the box on 20.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
T.J. Hockenson's 37.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 48.2.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 62.3%.

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