T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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T.J. Hockenson

NFL · Player Props

T.J. Hockenson

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

T.J. Hockenson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+221/-343).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +234 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +221.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
T.J. Hockenson has been heavily involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 16.7% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.4% to 45.6%.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (65.6%).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has conceded the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to TEs: 0.26 per game since the start of last season.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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