Tim Boyle TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Tim Boyle

NFL · Player Props

Tim Boyle

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Tim Boyle TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-162/+126).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +124 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This year, the feeble Atlanta Falcons defense has been torched for a massive 1.55 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 7th-largest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Falcons defense this year (67.9% Adjusted Completion%).

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