Terry McLaurin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 12:03 PM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-322).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
While Terry McLaurin has been responsible for 11.8% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Washington's offense near the end zone in this contest at 22.9%.
When talking about air yards, Terry McLaurin grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among wideouts since the start of last season, accruing a massive 87.0 per game.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The model projects the Commanders to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (only 55.0 per game on average).
Terry McLaurin's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 65.7% to 47.4%.

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