Terry McLaurin Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Touchdowns

Washington Commanders vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 25, 2026 8:43 PM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+351/-429).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +945 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +351.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Marcus Mariota this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has notched a whopping 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin's 58.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that quantifies high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 87th percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Washington Commanders to pass on 53.9% of their downs: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Right now, the 5th-most run-focused team in the NFL near the end zone (47.4% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Washington Commanders.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Washington Commanders are predicted by our trusted projection set to run just 60.5 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being forecasted in this game) typically mean worse passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and increased ground volume.