Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 1:22 PM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Marcus Mariota in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Commanders are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 36.1 pass attempts per game against the Colts defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
Terry McLaurin's 87.2% Route Participation Rate this year illustrates a substantial boost in his passing attack volume over last year's 77.0% rate.
The model projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 6.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (58.0% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
The model projects the Commanders to run the 10th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 8th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Commanders since the start of last season (only 55.0 per game on average).
Terry McLaurin's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 65.7% to 47.4%.