Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 10.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 64.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Terry McLaurin to notch 7.7 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 11th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin has been less involved as a potential target this season (80.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (92.8%).
The Commanders O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has allowed the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.7%) to wideouts this year (57.7%).