Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+139/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to accumulate 6.7 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) versus wideouts this year (76.9%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Terry McLaurin's 43.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 68.0.
Terry McLaurin's play as a receiver has declined this season, accumulating a mere 3.6 yards per game vs 4.6 last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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