Terry McLaurin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM EST

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-201/+148).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -201.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Terry McLaurin's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 68.0.
The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the league (58.1%) to wideouts since the start of last season (58.1%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.