Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+218/-335).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -320 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -335.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Terry McLaurin has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.2% this year, which ranks in the 76th percentile among wide receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers profile as the 5th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
Terry McLaurin has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 47.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 68.0.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wide receivers: 0.57 per game this year.

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