Terry McLaurin Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Terry McLaurin

NFL · Player Props

Terry McLaurin

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Terry McLaurin Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+185/-270).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -264 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -270.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Terry McLaurin to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (24.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.8% in games he has played).
Terry McLaurin's ball-catching skills have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 61.8% to 66.1%.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 5th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.18 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Terry McLaurin has compiled far fewer air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (103.0 per game).
Terry McLaurin's 59.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 68.0.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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