Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-103/-116).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
This week, Tee Higgins is forecasted by our trusted projection set to rank in the 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.4 targets.
Tee Higgins's 67.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 52.6.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.7%) versus WRs since the start of last season (61.7%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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