Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+125/-155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
The model projects Tee Higgins to total 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point spike in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Tee Higgins has been more heavily incorporated in his team's passing offense.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Tee Higgins's 2.9 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a noteworthy drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 5.3 figure.
Tee Higgins's 43.1% Adjusted Catch Rate this season marks a noteable regression in his receiving proficiency over last season's 71.6% rate.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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