Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-157/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -157.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to accumulate 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Tee Higgins's 47.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 76th percentile for wide receivers.
Tee Higgins has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 5.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Cleveland Browns cornerbacks project as the 10th-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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