Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM EST

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-154/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to earn 7.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack this week (22.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (15.7% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins has been among the best WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 4.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.1%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (64.1%).
The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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