Tee Higgins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to earn 8.7 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game this week (25.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.7%) versus WRs this year (62.7%).
The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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