Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+112/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.3% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 68.2% to 73.3%.
Tee Higgins grades out in the 85th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a stellar 0.40 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most passing TDs in football to WRs: 1.33 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
Tee Higgins has put up quite a few less air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (94.0 per game).
Tee Higgins's 43.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 60.6.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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