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Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+232/-365).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -359 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -365.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.4% in games he has played).
  • Tee Higgins's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 76.2%.
  • Tee Higgins ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.8%) to WRs this year (67.8%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
  • Tee Higgins has notched far fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
  • Tee Higgins's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 60.6.

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