Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+232/-365).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -359 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -365.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone this week (17.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.4% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.2% to 76.2%.
Tee Higgins ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.50 per game.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in football (67.8%) to WRs this year (67.8%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Tee Higgins has notched far fewer air yards this year (66.0 per game) than he did last year (94.0 per game).
Tee Higgins's 40.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 60.6.

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