Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Tee Higgins

NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-215).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +179 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the end zone this week (18.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.9% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 67.3% to 75.5%.
Tee Higgins ranks in the 86th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.45 per game.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
Tee Higgins has totaled quite a few less air yards this season (70.0 per game) than he did last season (92.0 per game).
Tee Higgins's 46.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 60.1.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.2%) versus wideouts this year (64.2%).

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