Tee Higgins Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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NFL · Player Props

Tee Higgins

WR · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Tee Higgins Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+119/-163).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +151 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 6th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Tee Higgins to be a much bigger part of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (22.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (12.7% in games he has played).
Tee Higgins's possession skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 67.3% to 75.3%.

Favors Under

Tee Higgins has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (92.0 per game).
Tee Higgins's 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 60.1.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.